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07/30/2010 - Norfolk, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There's a difficult decision ahead for Mid- Eastern Athletic Conference football, and there may not be a right or wrong answer considering both of the given options have merit.
"A win-win situation," according to Norfolk State football coach Pete Adrian.
Just as the FCS is expanding its playoff format from 16 to 20 teams this season, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference schools are weighing in on the idea of giving up the automatic bid afforded its champion, beginning in 2011, to return to a bowl game against the champion of the nation's other Historically Black Colleges and Universities league, the Southwestern Athletic Conference.
Talk of the potential Legacy Bowl has gone on for some time. Decision day is nearing.
Ironically, as FCS conferences desperate for an automatic bid like the Pioneer League and Great West circle the waters, there's good reason for the MEAC to considering giving up its bid. ESPN is believed to be offering around $1.5 million to the MEAC and SWAC for the television rights to such a bowl game.
The SWAC already foregoes sending its champion to the playoffs to have its own championship game, which draws huge crowds and revenue that stays within the conference. The FCS playoffs, meanwhile, aren't much of a revenue-generator for schools with small fan bases or those that, like the MEAC, rarely host.
"Hopefully it will be at some point in time in the fall, or before. At the latest in the fall," MEAC commissioner Dennis Thomas said today regarding the MEAC's decision during the conference's football media day.
"It's part of my responsibility to identify new revenue streams. And this is one of many revenue streams that I have brought to the table as commissioner. As you know, with the economy these days, every institution in our conference, their states are facing tremendous cutbacks and deficits. This is another proposal to vet with our membership to see whether or not we want to take advantage of a new revenue source."
North Carolina Central and Savannah State will begin participating in MEAC football next year, but Thomas said the proposal would be voted on only by the chancellors and presidents of the nine existing member schools: South Carolina State, which has been named the preseason favorite to win a third straight conference title, along with Bethune-Cookman, Delaware State, Florida A&M, Hampton, Howard, Morgan State, Norfolk State and North Carolina A&T.
A majority vote will determine the MEAC's future direction, Thomas added. If the vote was taken today, it surely would have been close, with South Carolina State, Florida A&M and to a lesser degree Delaware State believed to be the strongest proponents of keeping the status quo and not sacrificing the FCS automatic bid. What direction the other schools are leaning is up for speculation.
"You look at what's going on in college football today in general with the big guys," South Carolina State coach Buddy Pough said. "You know, Texas saved the Big 12, or whatever number they are now; Nebraska left the Big 12 to go to the Big Ten because of money. If those kind of people are making decisions based on fundraising, finances, that kind of stuff, then why in the heck would a little bitty outfit like us who needs a hundred times more money than they do not at least explore the possibilities of what could be?"
"Both ways, it's really a win-win situation, whichever way you want to go," Adrian said. "Obviously, we like being in the playoffs, but if the bowl game is something that's going to be on national TV, as it's supposed to be in front of 30, 40,000 people, that's bigger than any playoff games. It's just a question of which way we go. We don't know yet."
The MEAC and SWAC played a bowl game during the 1990s - the Heritage Bowl, with the conference champions having the option of playing in the game or going to the FCS (formerly Division I-AA) playoffs. If a conference champion chose the playoffs, the No. 2 team would be invited to play in the Heritage Bowl.
In a twist with the Legacy Bowl, the conference champions would square off, and other teams in the conferences could still have the chance to go to the playoffs, though they would have to be strong enough to earn an at-large bid. It seems unlikely for the MEAC, which hasn't won a playoff game since 1999. Florida A&M won the MEAC's only national title in 1978, but it was only a four- team playoff then.
The MEAC has won four playoff games since the field was expanded to 16 teams in 1986.
"South Carolina State (which fell at Appalachian State, 20-13, in last year's first round) showed that this conference has probably made the biggest gains in terms of quality play as a conference," said Florida A&M coach Joe Taylor, who had some playoff near-misses at Hampton before he switched schools. "Certainly the CAA, everybody is chasing them - that's the flagship, they put teams in they've won it. Buddy showed last year that we have somewhat closed that gap with some of these stronger leagues within FCS. That's important, that you compete for the best, for the ultimate prize. I think you're going to see that continue to happen."
Taylor adds that recruiting would suffer if the MEAC surrendered its playoff bid, but Adrian says it's not necessarily true. "You can say that I guess," Adrian said, "but when you look at the big guys, if you're not at a BCS school, you've not playing for the national championship and they still get the good recruits."
Some believe the Legacy Bowl would be a better experience than, say, losing a first-round playoff game. There are few games nationally in early to mid- December, when the Legacy Bowl would take place, so there would be a better chance for gaining national exposure.
"When you talk about going into a bowl game," Morgan State coach Donald Hill- Eley said, "it gives our young men an opportunity to experience that atmosphere of the bowl games, it gives them an opportunity to compete against another conference, to be able to go and spend three or four days away and be representation of your conference."
"The plusses would be a couple-day bowl game and the exposure from that," Delaware State coach Al Lavan added, "and the fact some revenue from those games would be equally distributed between the two teams involved, but also the remaining revenue would be dispersed to the remaining teams. That the plusses for it. I think there's good reason to certainly consider it."
Pough's South Carolina State squad has won 19 straight MEAC games, has a veteran team which won every conference game by at least 12 points last season, and again is led by senior quarterback Malcolm Long, the preseason conference offensive player of the year. Despite SCSU suffering losses in the first round of the playoffs at Appalachian State each of the last two seasons, including the hard-to-swallow defeat last year, Pough still prefers that experience over the MEAC's possible alternative.
"I enjoyed being in the playoffs," he said. "I also have confidence in the fact that the powers-that-be who make these kinds of decisions will make good decisions. They asked us for our input and we tell them what we like. Of course, some of us want to be in, some of us would like to be out. The one thing that I can tell you is that none of us take this lightly as far as how we decide what we're going to do."
MEAC PRESEASON POLL (Head Coaches and Sports Information Directors)
1. South Carolina State (15 first-place votes), 315 points; 2. Florida A&M (2), 268; 3. Norfolk State, 190; 4. Hampton (1), 167; 5. Morgan State, 166; 6. North Carolina A&T, 150; 7. Delaware State, 120; 8. Bethune-Cookman, 68; 9. Howard, 32
PRESEASON MEAC ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM
Offensive Player of the Year - Malcolm Long, QB, South Carolina State
Defensive Player of the Year - Julio Sanchez, LB, Hampton
First-Team Offense
QB- Malcolm Long, South Carolina State. RB- DeAngelo Branche, Norfolk State; Philip Sylvester, Florida A&M. TE- Lamont Bryant, Morgan State. WR- Willie Carter, Howard; Isaac West, Howard. OL-Johnny Culbreath, South Carolina State; Juavahr Nathan, South Carolina State; Josh Harrison, South Carolina State; Kendall Noble, Norfolk State; Sam Timothy, South Carolina State.
First-Team Defense
DL- Andre Carroll, Delaware State; Kenrick Ellis, Hampton; Josh Turner, Norfolk State; Jayson Ayers, South Carolina State. LB- Alvis Graham, Florida A&M; David Erby, South Carolina State; Julio Sanchez, Hampton. DB- Qier Hall, Florida A&M; Justin Ferrell, North Carolina A&T; Quay Long, North Carolina A&T; Darren McKahn, Morgan State.
First-Team Specialists
PK- Trevor Scott, Florida A&M. P- Nicholas Adams, Morgan State. Ret- Dwight Fluker-Berry, Norfolk State.
Second-Team Offense
QB- Anthony Glaud, Delaware State. RB- Jaashawn Jones, Delaware State; Mike Mayhew, North Carolina A&T. TE- Sherron Childress, Norfolk State. WR- Kevin Elliot, Florida A&M; Richard Christie, South Carolina State. OL- Christopher Sands, Florida A&M; Michael Ola Folorian, Hampton; Lawrence Brewer, Morgan State; Calton Ford, Norfolk State; William Falakiseni, Norfolk State.
Second-Team Defense
DL- Ryan Davis, Bethune-Cookman; Brandon Peguese, Hampton; Micah Stanfield, North Carolina A&T; Ronnell Ferguson, South Carolina State. LB- Reginald Sandilands, Bethune-Cookman; Anthony Taylor, Norfolk State; Julius Wilkerson, South Carolina State. DB- Curtis Holcomb, Florida A&M; Semaj Moody, South Carolina State; Devonne Quattlebaum, South Carolina State; Ricardo Silva, Hampton.
Second-Team Specialists
PK- Blake Erickson, South Carolina State. P- Alex Grubb, North Carolina A&T. Ret- Larrone Moore, Delaware State.
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Santa Clara, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Francisco 49ers completed the
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Steelers ink rookie LB Worilds, make Adams agreement official >>
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Worilds,
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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