Oswalt a deflection, not redemption, for Amaro

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Roy Oswalt puts on his Phillies uniform for the first time, he might have to check to make sure it is his name on the back of the jersey rather than what everyone in Philadelphia will be calling him for the rest of 2010.

Will "Not Cliff Lee" even fit on a jersey?

Oswalt has to be excited to go from a last-place club to one that is within arm's-reach of first place in the National League East, a Phillies team coming off back-to-back World Series appearances and figures to be the favorite to get to a third in a row now that they have added Oswalt from the Astros.

What the three-time All-Star won't be a fan of is the position he is in; that of replacing former fan favorite Lee, even if it is seven months after Lee left town. Oswalt can thank Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. for that awkwardness.

Amaro's decision to trade Lee, who was dominant for the Phillies after being acquired from the Indians before last year's non-waiver trade deadline, to Seattle in December was an unpopular one, even if it did get the club its current ace, Roy Halladay, from Toronto in the same four-team deal.

Amaro said that with Halladay, there could be no Lee. Philadelphia had given up too many prospects -- four to Cleveland in the original deal and another three to Toronto for Halladay -- and that shipping off Lee to the Mariners for Phillippe Aumont, Juan Ramirez and Tyson Gillies was designed to keep the team competitive for years to come by restocking the minor league system. He took this stance even knowing that a 2010 rotation of Halladay, Lee and Cole Hamels would have been perhaps the best in baseball.

Little has gone right for Amaro since.

Outside of Halladay and Hamels, the Phillies' rotation has been a mess, hindered by underperformance and injury. Joe Blanton has an earned run average just under six and Kyle Kendrick has tortured the Phils with inconsistency. J.A. Happ missed three months due to injury and veteran Jamie Moyer's 2010 season is over due to an elbow injury.

So you can imagine the uproar when word started to leak out that the Phillies were looking to add starting pitching help, a move that would certainly cost them some of their so-called minor league depth.

Even after Philadelphia acquired Oswalt, a 32-year-old righty with 143 wins and playoff experience, everyone continued to ask the same question: why didn't they just keep Lee?

"We can rehash this if you like," Amaro said on Thursday. "We had negotiations with Cliff. We were not comfortable he would be on our club past 2010. We designed a trade that would not only replenish our farm system, but would give us an opportunity to keep a No. 1 pitcher [Halladay] in our system beyond 2010.

He later added, "[With] this particular trade [for Oswalt], we have the ability under our terms to keep this No. 1 starter in our system not just for 2010, but in 2011 under our terms, and perhaps beyond that."

In Oswalt, Amaro sees redemption for not keeping Lee. In reality, all he has done is put an innocent outsider looking to win a title into the cross hairs of every Phillies fan who wanted to keep Lee.

If Oswalt losses a game 2-1, Lee would have won it 1-0. If Oswalt serves up a home run to center field, it would have been a pop up had Lee been on the mound.

Amaro, and by extension Oswalt, will be deemed failures if the Phillies don't capture their second title in three years. Imagine if Philadelphia battles the very capable Texas Rangers, Lee's new team, in the World Series and loses.

Lee's trade to the Rangers also made Amaro look bad, given the return the Mariners got for the future free agent. While Amaro netted a trio of prospects who have gotten lost in the system this year, the Mariners received Justin Smoak as part of the four-player package. Smoak, the 11th overall pick of the 2008 draft, was rated as Texas' second-best prospect by Baseball America and is already playing in the majors.

In Amaro's defense, the players he sent to the Astros for Oswalt -- Happ and minor leaguers Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar -- aren't going to make Phillies fans weep, especially considering Philadelphia reportedly got $11 million from Houston in the deal to offset some of the cost for Oswalt.

Still, the loss of Happ, a 27-year-old hurler with 12 wins and a 2.98 ERA in 31 career starts, seems to contradict Amaro's idea of young depth for the long haul. Had Amaro kept Lee, he would still have Happ, Hamels and Halladay and could have netted some compensation picks for losing Lee this offseason as a free agent.

What's done is done, however, and Amaro has still gotten himself a player that greatly increases Philadelphia's chances at getting back to the Fall Classic. Amaro just shouldn't expect that the move, in and of itself, constitutes total atonement.

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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