Line of Scrimmage: The T.O. Factor

Football Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Given their recent history of off-the-field problems, it's tempting to quip that the Cincinnati Bengals' signing of Terrell Owens is an attempt to improve the team's character.

It's natural to laugh at an organization where the imbalanced patients have run the asylum for so long, and where the man who made the Owens signing, longtime team president Mike Brown, has often seemed to be constructed with a couple fewer screws that his contemporaries around the league.

The marriage between Cincinnati and the radioactive Owens, hot on the heels of the offseason signings of Matt Jones and Pacman Jones, is more grist for the mill of those who would argue that the Bengals don't get it, and don't understand that character and chemistry are important components in the effort to win championships.

I say hogwash. Every successful NFL franchise takes chances, and if the Bengals wish to post back-to-back playoff berths for the first time since 1981-82, they know they had better do the same.

There were 12 playoff teams in 2009, and the Bengals were the 12th-best among them by the time the postseason actually hit. They peaked in Weeks 9-10, completing sweeps of the Ravens and Steelers and holding on for dear life thereafter. Cincinnati went 3-5 in its final eight games - the wins coming over the Browns, Lions, and Chiefs - and was outclassed by the Jets in the first round of the postseason.

Playing the same hand was not going to result in a royal flush, and Brown and head coach Marvin Lewis knew it. So, an offense that was 26th in passing in '09 sought to re-invent itself as an aerial team, with nearly every offseason move made on that side of the ball indicating that Carson Palmer will be winging it quite a bit this season.

Cincinnati signed Antonio Bryant and Matt Jones off the free agent wire, used a first-round draft pick on Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma), the top tight end in the draft, and followed up two rounds later by selecting Texas star Jordan Shipley (3rd Round, Texas). Though the offensive line remains something of a question mark after struggling to protect the plodding Palmer at times in 2009, there is hope that last year's lottery pick, tackle Andre Smith, will get in shape and be a major difference-maker up front.

In a division where the Steelers are never down long, the Ravens made similar aggressive moves (Anquan Boldin, Donte' Stallworth) with an eye on contending for a Super Bowl, and the Browns appear ready to get off the mat, Cincinnati has done exactly what was prudent for its survival.

The move to sign Owens, however controversial, was of a piece with the design of the larger blueprint. From a football standpoint, the Bengals are insulating themselves from the distinct possibility that Bryant, who has really only had one great season since entering the league in 2002, won't be sufficiently recovered from offseason knee surgery. They can hardly count on the troubled Matt Jones, who isn't even a cinch to make the team, and younger players like Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson, and Shipley aren't going to scare opposing defensive coordinators the way Owens will.

Though the popular sentiment is that the 36-year-old Owens is in decline, it's important to note that he's only two years removed from a 1,000-yard, 10- touchdown season with the Cowboys. Last year in Buffalo, where the Bills had major quarterback problems and an offensive line that couldn't even enable the receivers to get out of their breaks, Owens still had 829 yards and scored six touchdowns. The guy keeps his body fine-tuned and will work hard, that much is a given.

Of course, we all know that work habits and the attention the six-time Pro Bowler commands on the field have never been the prevailing issues. What everyone wants to know is how such a hyper-sensitive narcissist is going to co- exist with his long-lost emotional twin, Chad Ochocinco, how Owens is going to react toward Palmer or offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski when he doesn't get enough touches in a given game, and how he'll handle a losing streak should one arise.

Given that Owens is a future Hall of Famer who is nonetheless playing for his fifth team in the past eight years, you can pretty much set your watch for the headline-grabbing sound byte or sideline tantrum to come. With the one-year deal they gave him, the Bengals are gambling that he'll keep the antics to a level that will enable him to return in 2011.

In light of his history, we know that the odds of things working out between Owens and the Bengals long-term are prohibitive. But in light of the checkered history of the Cincinnati Bengals, sitting on the platform and watching the train roll by isn't any more attractive an option.

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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