Duke goes for win No. 9 against Fish

Baseball Betting Lines

07/04/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Zach Duke goes after his ninth win of the season this evening when the Pittsburgh Pirates continue their three-game series with the Florida Marlins at Land Shark Stadium.

Duke has been one of the best left-handers in the league this season, but has lost two of his last three starts. Duke absorbed the loss on Monday against the Chicago Cubs, despite a decent effort, as he allowed three runs and seven hits in seven innings to drop him to 8-6 on the season to go along with a 3.13 earned run average.

Pittsburgh, which has scored one run or less a major league-high 20 times, has managed just five total runs in Duke's six losses.

The 26-year-old hurler has struggled against the Marlins over the course of his career, going 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in four starts.

Run support wasn't a problem for the Pirates in the opener of this set on Friday, as Brandon Moss and Ramon Vazquez hit early home runs, and Pittsburgh shut down Hanley Ramirez, on the way to a 7-4 win.

Charlie Morton (1-1) pitched six shutout innings to get the victory, as the Pirates snapped a two-game skid but defeated the Marlins for the fifth straight time.

"[Morton] made some pitches a couple of different times and we couldn't get any runs," Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez said.

Moss, Vazquez and Jack Wilson each had two RBI in the win.

Chris Volstad (5-8) was saddled with the loss after surrendering three hits and four runs over three innings. He's dropped five of his last six decisions.

John Baker smacked a two-run homer and had three RBI for the Marlins, who were coming off a three-game sweep of the Nationals, but fell a game behind the Phillies for first place in the tight NL East.

Ramirez came into the game having driven in at least one run in a franchise record 10 straight contests, but finished 0-for-4. The streak by Ramirez was the longest for a shortstop since Carlos Guillen had an 11-game surge for the 2007 Tigers. It was also the longest streak ever for a National League shortstop, since RBI became an official statistic in 1920.

Getting the call for the Fish this evening will be 24-year-old left-hander Andrew Miller, who is 2-4 with a 4.45 ERA. Miller's winless streak reached four starts on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Rays, as he was charged with the loss after surrendering five runs and eight hits in 6 1/3 innings.

Miller lost to the Pirates back on April 20 in his only other appearance against them.

Casiononnet Baseball Betting News

<< Moyer shoots for third straight win in middle tilt with Mets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies hope Jamie Moyer can give them the same type of effort that Rodrigo Lopez did on Friday, when they continue their three-game series against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Lopez (1-0), w

<< Halladay, Wang square off in Bronx
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In his second start since coming off the disabled list, Roy Halladay will take the mound for the Blue Jays when Toronto takes on the New York Yankees in the second matchup of a four-game stint at Yankee Stadium. The strong

<< Last place teams continue set in Cleveland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The cellar dwellers from the AL Central and AL West will collide once again this evening when the Cleveland Indians host the Oakland Athletics at Progressive Field. Toeing the rubber this evening for Oakland will be Vin Ma

<< Rays hope the Price is right in Arlington
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Still trying to work out some kinks, the Tampa Bay's phenom lefty David Price will take the hill this evening against the hard- hitting Texas Rangers in the second contest of a three-game stint. Price, a playoff hero for

<< Rookie hurlers face off in Anaheim
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will take to the field this evening, as they host the Baltimore Orioles in the second matchup of a three-game stint at Angel Stadium. Sean O'Sullivan has been a solid fill in for an Ange

Home Cooking: Cubs target seventh straight home win against Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs have picked the perfect time to get hot. Today, they try to win their seventh straight game at home and their fourth consecutive game overall, as they continue a four-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers at W

Sibling smash: Serena bests Venus to win Wimbledon >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In an overpowering performance, Serena Williams bested her older sister, Venus, in straight sets to win the title at Wimbledon for a third time. The 27-year-old Serena denied her sibling a three-peat

No rest for the weary: Tigers, Twins back at it after marathon >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers will try to put distance between them and the Minnesota Twins when the two teams collide this afternoon in the second matchup of a three-game series at the Metrodome. Edwin Jackson will toe the rubber

BoSox try to bounce back against Mariners >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox will try to return to the win column when they host the Seattle Mariners this afternoon at Fenway Park. Boston's starter this afternoon will be Brad Penny, who has one win in his last six starts. The la

With Manny return behind them, LA gets back to business in San Diego >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the return of Manny Ramirez now behind them, the Los Angeles Dodgers can get back to business, as they continue their three-game series with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Ramirez returned from a 50-game suspensi

SPORTS BETTING: NFL Football Sportsbook Betting

NFL owners, already life's biggest winners, want to try their luck with the lottery.


That was the news out of their meetings last week, where team bosses voted unanimously to allow stamping state and local lottery tickets with franchise logos, if, ahem, any governments wanted to do a deal.

A shocker: Within days the Pats announced they'd be sponsoring the Massachusetts state lottery, the Skins said they'd slap their sticker on Virginia scratch-offs and the Ravens admitted they were talking to Maryland lottery bosses. In all likelihood, it won't be long before every team is a presenting sponsor of scratch-offs or just plain old pick fives. "The change in policy was approved 32-0," said NFL spokesman Greg Aiello. "So you can expect to see more deals soon."

It's a branding opportunity too big for the owners to ignore, and one a couple of dozen baseball franchises have enjoyed for years. The fact the NFL has been slower to act than those slack-brained Seligites is indicative of its complicated relationship with all forms of gambling. Consider this: Last Thursday, as the Pats and the Redskins finalized their new lottery deals, a lawyer representing the NFL argued before Delaware's Supreme Court that the state's newly signed sports betting law should be repealed.

The NFL betting is the face of opposition to sports gambling . And as much as it would like to share that responsibility with other leagues, that's not going to happen as long as more than 40% of all money legally wagered on games is bet on football. That's why the Brewers can do a multi-million dollar deal with a local casino, or the Celtics can make their own pact with the Mass lottery, and the response is, "Sweet, let's play." But when the NFL does it the stakes are higher, and everyone from NPR's Frank Deford to the Associated Press to the guys blogging at Deadspin will line up to play gotcha.

So I asked Aiello, who surely knew there'd be piling on, how the league can rail against being bait for sports bettors, then allow its franchises to be just that for lotteries, the most insidious and addictive form of gambling around. He emailed me this response: "We are not moral crusaders. NFL personnel are permitted to engage in legal forms of gambling, except for betting on NFL games. We are making a distinction here between the spread of gambling on the outcome of our games and supporting state lottery scratch-off games, that have nothing to do with the outcome of our games."

Here's where I should rip him. But, the thing is, he's right. Not to get Obama on you, but this is a complicated, nuanced issue. As much as lotteries are considered a tax on the poor, the NFL isn't a socially obligated government program -- it's just a business. Scratch-off's help the bottom line, sports betting doesn't. Now, it's okay to call the league hypocritical when it releases injury reports, which players have told me only helps bettors … But when it supports other forms of gaming? Big Deal.

Now, it's okay to call the league hypocritical when it releases injury reports, which players have told me only helps bettors. And it's okay to mutter something obscene when the league pretends gambling doesn't help drive TV ratings and fan interest and put money in owners' pockets. But when it supports other forms of gaming? Big Deal. The Bears should put an orange "C" on every deck of cards dealt at Harrah's in Joliet; the Eagles should slap their logo on roulette wheels at the Borgata in Atlantic City; the Dolphins should hold training camp at the El San Juan in Puerto Rico.

Seriously.

The NFL's problem, when it comes to the gambling world, isn't hypocrisy, it's worse: The bosses lack vision. That's why the league is picking unwinnable fights in Delaware and taking pot shots from critics after making smart sponsorship deals. Roger Goodell and his gang are acting and thinking locally rather than globally, which is rare for them, especially compared to their professional (and amateur) counterparts.

The NBA held its All Star game in Las Vegas and David Stern's kingdom didn't crumble (although the town did bring plenty of players to their knees.) I'd say it's 6 to 5 and pick 'em that Lebron will make a road swing through Sin City before his career is over.

Even the NCAA College Football Betting is more progressive on this issue than the NFL. Several years ago Rachel Newman Baker, college sports' gambling czar, opened a dialogue with Vegas bookmakers to learn about how they do business. She's visited Nevada sports books, studied their operations and listened to how they regulate action. Now she knows she can expect a call from bookmakers, who lose money when sports are fixed, if they think something sketchy is going on in NCAA games. She's not in favor of sports betting, but, as she once told me, "I know it's not going away, either."

The NFL can't seem to accept that. And until it can find peace with the idea, it'll get flack, even when it's right.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts MasterCard needs.

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.