Busch tops in Nationwide qualifying at Texas

Autoracing Betting Lines

04/02/2009 - Ft. Worth, Texas (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Busch has positioned himself well in an attempt to capture his third consecutive Nationwide Series victory at Texas Motor Speedway after winning Thursday's qualifying for the O'Reilly 300.

Busch turned in the best lap around the one-and-a-half mile track in 28.685 seconds (188.252 m.p.h.) for his first Nationwide pole of the season and the 16th of his career. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver won both races in NASCAR's second-tier series at Texas during the 2008 season.

"It would be nice to win here on Saturday and make it three in a row and also to make it where now a pole sitter has won here," Busch said.

No driver has won from the top starting position in 16 Nationwide races here.

Busch took the pole for the 2004 race at Texas, but finished second in that event.

Starting alongside Busch will be fellow Sprint Cup Series driver Matt Kenseth, who posted the second-best lap time in 28.715 seconds.

Paul Menard qualified third, and David Ragan was fourth. Jeff Burton completed the top-five.

Sixth through 10th were: Carl Edwards, Terry Cook, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Joey Logano.

Brad Keselowski crashed during his qualifying run and will have to go to a backup car. Keselowski will start from the rear of the field.

Scott Wimmer, Josh Wise, Brian Keselowski, Kertus Davis, Kerry Earnhardt and Mike Harmon failed to qualify.

Saturday's 300-mile race at Texas is scheduled to start around 3:00 p.m. (et).

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.